The ‘Failure Rate’

By MICHAEL EDLEN | Special to the Palisadian-Post

Have you ever considered the number of Palisades homes for sale that do not seem to sell at all? Having just experienced a period of six years of steady price increases and then the recent flattened out market, most people might assume that everything put on the market does sell.

In fact, many people I have talked with in the last several months have had the belief that not only does everything sell here, but that often they get higher prices than anyone would have expected. The idea that a significant percentage of homes don’t actually sell is not something given much thought.

Our office took the time to carefully review the record of all listings placed on the market over the last two years. We looked at each year’s listings and calculated what we call the “failure rate” based on the listings that were withdrawn from the market or allowed to expire, or perhaps were re-listed and are still on the market. If a home was listed for lease and then leased instead of sold, we did not include it in the “failure rate” calculations.

In 2018 the rate was approximately 25%. In 2019 it had increased to 30%, which means that nearly one out of three homes people wanted to sell did not succeed.

People often ask us how long it might take to sell their home. For many, the question might better be asked, “Will my home sell in the current market?”

It will be interesting to see what 2020 will bring to our local housing market. It is an emotional political year, and a period with global fears about health and economic issues. A cyclical market correction period is somewhat overdue, and prices, on average, are lower by about 5% over the last year.

Time will tell if we are only experiencing a period of softness for a while and will then see a resumption of prices increasing later this year, or if the inventory of unsold homes continues to result in downward pressure on prices until equilibrium is reached.

Michael Edlen has tracked local home sales statistics for over 30 years of selling $1.5 billion. He has been ranked in the top ½% of all agents in the country and is available for confidential consultation at 310-230-7373 or michael@edlenteam.com.