Climate Change Expert Advises Council Members

By REBECCA HOWES Staff Writer Climate change expert Dr. Glen MacDonald, director of the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, addressed the Pacific Palisades Community Council last Thursday evening regarding implications of climate change for the region.   ’Our goal in the very beginning is to try to educate everybody in the Palisades as to what is going on with climate change,’ said Steven Boyers, a former council chair and now Area 7 representative.   Boyers, a local attorney, took a proactive approach to the climate-change issue after attending an informational hearing in Santa Monica last October, ‘Climate Change Adaptation: Impacts in Southern California,’ held by State Sen. Fran Pavley.   In October, the Community Council appointed a committee, chaired by Boyers, to educate the council and community on what adaptations can be made in response to climate change.   ’If we don’t do something now, we won’t be in a position to do something later,’ Boyers explained.   To help with the education efforts, the committee reached out to MacDonald, who is an international authority on the environmental effects of climate change and drought, and has been studying climate for nearly 30 years.

What We Know

According to MacDonald, mankind has increased, through the burning of fossil fuels and through land clearance and other human-caused factors, the amount of CO2 and methane in the Earth’s atmosphere since about 1800.   Studying ice-core bubbles, most commonly from the polar ice caps of Antarctica and Greenland or from high mountain glaciers elsewhere, allows scientists to reconstruct a climate record.   Measuring CO2 and methane in little bubbles trapped in the ice cores has enabled scientists to determine natural variations going back over 650,000 years.   CO2 does go up and down by about 100 parts per million by volume though natural variations. The peak never got much above 280 to 290 parts per million by volume, according to MacDonald, over the past million years.   Today that number has risen to 400 parts per million by volume. ‘We’ve added about a third more CO2 and we are on our way to doubling it,’ MacDonald said.   Predicting what may happen down the road is not an exact science.   ’You have to deal with managing uncertainty,’ he said. ‘These are the best estimates based on climate models.”

Climate Warming Predictions

All of the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that warming will occur as we continue to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.   Estimates of global temperature at the end of the 21st century show predictions of total annual warming of just over 4 degrees.   Climate in the past two decades is warmer than at any other time in the past 2,000 years, and even if we were to stabilize things we’ve added enough greenhouse gases that the climate has already begun to change, MacDonald explained.   There is some good news for Pacific Palisades. Thanks to its close proximity to the cool Pacific Ocean, the town will fare better than other parts of the nation; the predicted temperature rise is 1 to 3 degrees, based on low to moderate carbon output by the end of the century.   MacDonald warned, however, that the Palisades is not an island and therefore will feel the effects of other areas like the Inland Empire and the Central Valley. July temperatures for these two large food-producing regions will be well over 100 degrees by the end of the century, he predicted. ‘

Sea-Level Rise Predictions

Where close proximity the Pacific Ocean aids the Palisades, as far as climate warming, it hurts the region when it comes to the issue of sea level rise.   This long-term trend started at the beginning of the 20th century and has continued at a faster rate than originally projected by the IPCC. Since 1975 we’ve seen an increase in sea-level rise of approximately 5 centimeters.   The good news is that the Palisades in 2100 will not be under water.   Analysis put together by the Australian government in 2010, which are the most recent estimates, suggests that sea-level rise will range anywhere from 30 to 86 centimeters. Eighty-six centimeters is roughly a three-foot rise in sea level.   ’It’s pretty significant if you have a house on Broad Beach or the Colony in Malibu’it would be devastating,’ MacDonald explained.   Other areas along the beach, such as Santa Monica, would certainly encounter major problems, and the rise would bring difficulties to Pacific Coast Highway, but the Palisades would likely be unaffected.   The state as a whole is a different story. Projected real estate loss alone due to sea-level rise in the Bay Area could be as much as $40 billion in some areas.

Drought Predictions

Since 2000, the West and the Southwest have experienced drought conditions, with the exception of California in 2011. Last year, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico experienced record drought conditions.   The issue of water, which the Palisades gets from the Colorado River, along with Southwestern states mentioned above, is a major concern, as California and the Southwest are projected to become even drier, MacDonald said.

Fire Predictions

With drier conditions, earlier snow melt and drier fuel, concern about rampant brush and forest fires looms large.   ’Six of the worst fires in California have happened since the year 2000,’ MacDonald said. ‘We’ve had record-breaker fires in every one of the Southern California counties. That’s a lot of fires.’   Due to the projected drier, warmer conditions, areas like Malibu could potentially double in area burned by the end of the century. The Tahoe Basin and the Sierras will potentially face a quadruple increase in annual area burned, he said.

Where We Stand

MacDonald is quick to point out that these predictions and projections are just that, best guesses based on what is going on today and simulations and models of what will happen in the future.   ’My approach, and the approach of the Institute of Environment Sustainability, is not to be a fearmonger, not to use this as a way to re-organize our economy or redistribute wealth,’ he said. ‘What we are trying to do is figure out how to basically cope with these kind of environmental challenges, but also keep the lights on.’